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June 23, 2025

Daily Morning Report Date: 23rd June 2025
NIFTY OUTLOOK: 25112.40 FII 7940.70 cr DII -3049.88 cr
(23rd – 27th June 2025)
As discussed in the previous report dated 16th June 2025, market behaviour remained on expected lines during the past week. After successfully crossing 24887, Nifty rallied up to 25136.
A strong bullish candle on the daily chart and an average bullish candle on the weekly chart indicate a bullish counterattack. If Nifty successfully crosses 25273, it may rally up to 25434–25543. If momentum continues, it may even test 25755.
Nifty has been in a consolidation phase for the past six weeks. The dark cloud cover formed a week ago has neither been confirmed nor negated. If bears become active at the upper end of the consolidation zone, Nifty may slide to 24950–24790. A break below these levels could take it further down to 24630–24470.
Bank Nifty OUTLOOK
SPOT: 56252.85 PCR: 0.86 Max CE OI: 56000 Max PE OI: 56000
On 20th June 2025, Bank Nifty closed at 56252.85, up by 1.22% from the previous day. The total movement during the session was 761.80 points. The index made a high of 56328.20 and a low of 55566.40.
Technical View on Daily Chart:
Key support and resistance levels are at 55900 and 56520 respectively.
Intraday Technical Strategy
Go Long above 56520 with stop loss 56390 and target 56700
Go Short below 55900 with stop loss 56100 and target 55700
RSI stands at 57.80. (Below 30 is oversold; above 70 is overbought)
SMA Analysis:
Bank Nifty is trading above all 8 SMA levels (5, 10, 20, 30, 50, 100, 150, 200 days).
Two bullish candlestick patterns were identified.
• Engulfing Uptrend
• Belt Hold Uptrend
Macros.
1. Dollar index @ 98.28
2. Vix @ 20.62
3. Crude @ 75.48
4. US 10 years bond @ 4.376
Note:
The war in the Middle East has further escalated as the US joined the conflict and attacked Iran’s nuclear plant. Iran’s parliament has approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and Houthis from Yemen have closed the Red Sea route. Around 30% of global trade passes through these routes.
The Red Sea handles 12% of world trade and is a key link between Asia and Europe, while the Strait of Hormuz manages 20–25% of global oil shipments. Closure of both routes could disrupt 30–35% of global trade. Crude oil prices may shoot up to $95–100 if the situation continues for another week, leading to a rise in US inflation. Asia and Europe will also face serious challenges.
India’s trade with the Middle East, valued at $40 billion, is at risk. Two-thirds of India’s crude oil and half of its LNG imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption could send oil prices soaring, pushing up India’s import bill and inflation. India will be severely impacted.
Contributed by
Ashok bhandari : INH000019549
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Macquarie On Metal
Tata Steel : Maintain Outperform, Target Price Rs 181 (Earlier: Rs 156)
JSW Steel : Maintain Neutral, Target Price Rs 1,125 (Earlier: Rs 1,034)
Jindal Steel & Power : Maintain Outperform, Target Price Rs 1,029 (Earlier: Rs 980)
Hindalco : Maintain Outperform, Target Price Rs 709 (Earlier: Rs 723)
Coal India : Maintain Outperform, Target Price Rs 445 (Earlier: Rs 514)
@beatthestreet10
Jefferies On Polycab
Maintain Buy; Hike target price to Rs 7,150 from Rs 7,050
FY25 saw further +1% market share gain in organized C&W to 26-27% now
Timely capex aided +26% sales CAGR in C&W
FMEG segment turned profitable post 10 quarters
Est FY25-28e EPS CAGR at +26%, driven by strong order book and better FMEG margins
@beatthestreet10
Jefferies On Kfin Technologies
Maintain Buy with target price of Rs 1,460
Management is focused on ramping up & driving synergies from M&A
Assent has presence across large markets and can now target larger clients
Domestic business is doing well and company isn't facing specific pricing issues
Jefferies On Chola Finance
Maintain Buy with target price of Rs 1,800
Management stated growth & asset quality trends have been soft in Q1
These should improve if the monsoon is good
Management expects 10-15 bps NIM expansion & flat credit cost Vs -10 bps guided earlier in FY26
@beatthestreet10
Goldman Sachs On L&T Finance
Maintain Buy with target price of Rs 185
ROA improvement and AUM growth on track
Poised to deliver strong earnings growth
Expect to deliver earnings growth of 30% CAGR over FY25-27
If company delivers in-line/better performance, it has further scope to re-rate
Godrej Properties : Co. Sells ₹2,000 Cr Worth of Homes at Bengaluru Project Launch
Record Sales: Over ₹2,000 crore worth homes sold during the launch of "Barca @ Godrej MSR City", the most successful launch in North Bengaluru by value & volume.
Large-Scale Project: Godrej MSR City is GPL’s largest township in Bengaluru, with ~5.6 million sq. ft. development potential.
Bernstein On India Strategy
Believe now is an opportune moment to seek out fresh investment ideas
Ongoing global events are likely to have a limited structural impact on India, making this an interesting time to explore new opportunities
List out 10 ideas that should be looked out for in the coming quarters
Coforge
KPIT Tech
Persistent
Delhivery
Renew (not listed in India)
Paytm
Max Financial
HDFC AMC
Jubilant Food
Devyani
CITI on SFBs
RBI eased PSL target to 60%, offering structural relief & operational flexibility
MFI segment was leveraged to achieve PSL targets & relaxation provides leeway to diversify
SFBs with relatively more diversified portfolio can now scale-up non-PSL portfolio
MS on SBFs
RBI has revised priority sector guideline (PSL) requirements effective F26.
Overall PSL target has been reduced from 75% to 60% of Adjusted Net Bank Credit (ANBC) or Credit Equivalent of Off Balance Sheet Exposure (CEOBE), whichever is higher.
This is structural +ve
CLSA on IT (Accenture read through)
Accenture further revised upwards its FY25 organic revenue growth guidance to 3%-4% from 2%-4%
Reiterate +ve stance with Infosys, Tech Mah & Persistent top picks
HSBC on IT (Accenture read through)
Growth moderated in 3QFY25 vs 1HFY25; FY25 growth guidance narrowed to 6-7% Overall, deal wins declined 7% y-o-y in cc terms; decline in outsourcing bookings much sharper
Results do not incrementally provide a strong read-across for Indian IT
India's crude oil imports from different countries
Countries whose consignments pass through Strait of Hormuz in case of India:
- Saudi Arabia (525 kbpd)
- UAE (519 kbpd)
- Kuwait (85 kbpd)
%age to Total: Only 22.6% to total imports
Which means India's Oil supply will not be materially affected by closure of Strait of Hormuz
MORGAN STANLEY ON BANKS
Will Give Small Finance Banks Greater Flexibility In Portfolio Diversification, Operational Ease
AU SFB Estimate Its Current Priority Sector Lending Certificates Portfolio At 80%
Potential Additional Income From Sale Of Priority Sector Lending Certificates
Believe Surplus In Key Small & Marginal Portfolio For Bank Is Limited
MACQUARIE ON METALS
Near-term Uncertainty In Hindalco's Global Downstream Business Could Cap Earnings
Strong Domestic Demand Fundamentals Underpin Our Outlook On Ferrous Stocks
Prefer Ferrous Stocks On Solid Domestic Fundamentals
YES SECURITIES ON OIL & GAS
Refining Upcycle Favours CPCL & MRPL, Valuations Re-Rating Likely
Indian Standalone Refiners In Sweet Spot
Jefferies on Bharti Airtel
Buy, TP Rs 2350
4 key reasons to own :
Best way to play consumption
Significant runway for mid-teens rev growth
Capex intensity structurally declined
Val have significant scope to re-rate
U.S SECRETARY OF STATE Says This is not a war against Iran - Agencies
Iranian retaliation would be the worst mistake ever made
Iran has been behind every major problem in the Middle East
President Trump did the world a favor last night
The U.S. is prepared to speak to Iran as early as tomorrow
We are not in the regime change business -it's Iran that has been playing games
If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, it would be committing economic suicide
RAMESH DAMANI Says Have A More Optimistic View Of The Financial Market - NDTV PROFIT
Trump's Actions Have Changed The Contours Of Middle East Conflict
Turmp's Decision Over The Weekend Is Monumental, Changed Middle East Contours
US Fighter Jets Came Back Unharmed, Iran's Capacity To Fight Back Is Very Limited
Market Is Seeing A Possibility Of Peace In The Middle East
Trump Is Playing The Game Of 'Might Is Right' In Middle East
Embassy Developments : Co. Signs JDA for ₹1,600 Cr Project in Whitefield, Bengaluru
New Deal Signed: Embassy Developments Ltd. enters Joint Development Agreement for ~17.9 acres in Whitefield.
Project Scope: Premium residential project with ~1,000 apartments (2, 2.5, 3 BHK); ~1.6 million sq ft saleable area.
Estimated GDV: ₹1,600 crore, launch expected in FY2027.
Strategic Location: Strong infrastructure, upcoming Metro & Ring Roads to boost connectivity.
Growth Outlook: Reinforces FY26 pipeline of ₹22,000 Cr GDV across 10 projects.
Nomura on Autos
ABS to become mandatory for all domestic 2Ws
Demand to be likely impacted by 2-4%, Hero Moto most impacted
Likely price increase of 3000, pass on to impact pricing by 3-5%
UBS on Colgate
Buy, TP Rs 3000
See an attractive risk-reward emerging with a one year view
STK currently trades at FY27E PE multiple of 39x, which is undemanding and already reflects weaker earnings dynamic of upcoming couple of quarters.
IRAN FOREIGN MINISTER Says The U.S. has committed a grave violation of the UN Charter, international law, and the NPT by attacking Iran's nuclear installations - ET NOW
Iran reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interests, and people, in accordance with the UN Charter
The events this morning are outrageous and will have lasting consequences
Iran strongly condemns the U.S. attacks as a violation of international law
SOURCES SAYS GOVT UNLIKELY TO EXTEND ISTS CHARGE WAIVER TO RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS BEYOND JUNE 2025
Alert: ISTS Is Inter-State Transmission System Charges
Alert: ISTS Charge Waiver Made Clean Energy Projects More Cost-Competitive
End of ISTS Charge Waiver Could Raise Green Power Costs
Ind May Face Higher Tariffs As Developers Factor In Added Transmission Costs Post-June 2025
Alert: ISTS waiver Was First Announced In 2019 To Boost Clean Energy Adoption In India
MEGHNA INFRACON | Enters South Mumbai with ₹80 Cr sea-facing residential project in Prabhadevi.
Launch planned in 2025; strategic move into luxury housing near Shivaji Park.
Strengthens presence in premium real estate and boosts revenue visibility.
NUVAMA ON ACCENTURE
Q3FY25 revenue grew 7.7% YoY / 7% in constant currency (CC) YoY to USD 17.7 billion, beating Street estimates of USD 17.3 billion
Overall bookings were soft (-7% CC YoY); Consulting declined 2.2% YoY, while Outsourcing fell 9.8% YoY
The company continues to witness an elevated level of uncertainty in CY25 compared to CY24, SpolAn though clients are prioritizing large-scale reinvention initiatives
Accenture is not rated
Narrows FY25 growth guidance; expects a ~2% headwind from Federal business in Q4
Guidance revised to 6-7% CC YoY (earlier 5-7%), including ~3% inorganic contribution
Decent performance amid macro uncertainty; positive for Indian IT sector, with a constructive medium-to-long-term outlook
USD 789 million invested across 15 acquisitions in 9MFY25; FY25 acquisition target stands at USD 1-1.5 billion
Peers Benchmarking ~ Steel Pipes / Tubes Sector
Sambhv Steel Tubes is better than many listed peers on multiple parameters
Ola Electric : Large Trade
2.41 cr shares (0.55% eq) worth ₹107 cr change hands at an avg ₹44/sh
DIXON, REDINGTON, OPTIEMUS INFRACOM; China’s Rare Earth Curbs Jeopardize Global Electronics Supply Chains - Mc Report
Supply Chain Disruption: Restrictions hit exports of critical rare earth materials used in smartphones, TVs, speakers, and EVs.
Electronics at Risk: Major global OEMs face sourcing challenges, potential production delays, and rising input costs.
Dependency Exposed: China supplies over 85% of processed rare earths globally—no immediate alternatives available at scale.
Jobs in Jeopardy: Electronics manufacturing hubs, especially in Southeast Asia & India, could see job losses due to input shortage.
Impact on India: Indian electronics, auto, and green tech sectors may face raw material inflation; beneficiaries could be Indian rare earth refiners (like IREL, if scaled up).
BIOCON CEO & MD Says Have A Bank Debt Of $1.2 Bn & Certain Other Obligations - NDTV PROFIT
Debt To Remain At $1.2 Bn As We Are Not Repaying Bank Debt
Will Use QIP Proceeds Of $520-530 Mn To Repay Private Equity Investors
Reliance Infra : Co. Settles ₹273 Cr Debt of Subsidiary JRTR with Yes Bank
JR Toll Road Pvt Ltd (JRTR), a wholly owned subsidiary of Reliance Infra, settled ₹273 Cr debt (incl. interest) with Yes Bank.
Reliance Infra, as corporate guarantor, is fully discharged from its guarantee obligations.
Nitco : Co. Secures Additional ₹45 Cr Order from Prestige Estates; Total Order Book Now ₹261 Cr
Prestige Estates Projects Ltd has issued a Letter of Intent (LoI) to Nitco for additional tile orders worth ₹45 Cr.
This raises Nitco’s total order value from Prestige to ₹261 Cr, including previous orders for tiles, marble, and mosaic.
The orders are expected to be executed over 12 months.
ANTIQUE ON OIL INDIA
On-ground checks reinforce high conviction growth outlook
FY26 crude output targeted at 3.65 million tons (vs 3.46 million tons in FY25), driven by 84 new wells, 300+ workovers, and revival of sick wells
Gas output expected to rise by March 2026, supported by new NAG wells from AG fields and incremental production offset ~0.67) on from workovers (base decline offset - 0.67)
3 year management expects CAGR guidance: 5% oil, 15% gas; backed by rig ramp-up (2231), radial drilling, hydrofracturing, and infra upgrades
DNPL pipeline upgrade on track for completion by end-CY25
IGGL full rollout targeted by March 2027, with mechanical completion expected by December
NRL expansion likely to be completed by end-2025, expected to create significant value for OIL, though it results in a ~3% cut to the target price
Oil and gas production forecast remains marginally below guidance
Slight delay in commercial production factored in
GRM assumptions trimmed slightly due to an increase in exports to Bangladesh
Renaissance Invst Managers Says Underlying Growth Momentum Is Fairly Strong - CNBCTV 18
Investors Believe Crisis Will Remain Contained
Corporate & Bank Balance Sheets Are Very Strong
NANDANI CREATION UP 3 % , MASSIVE VOLUME WITNESSED
MADHYA BHARAT AGRO + 9 %

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